Iran war risks ‘catastrophic’ oil market impact: Aramco CEO

The Iran war threatens “catastrophic consequences” for the global oil market, the CEO of Saudi oil giant Aramco has warned.

Amin Nasser told an earnings call on Tuesday that the war had caused “a severe chain reaction” and “a drastic domino effect” beyond shipping, “on aviation, agriculture, automotive, and other industries.”

“There will be catastrophic consequences for the world’s oil market. The longer the disruption goes on and the more drastic the consequences for the global economy,” he said, adding that it was “by far the biggest crisis” faced by the region’s oil and gas industry.

Aramco’s Ras Tanura refinery was hit by a projectile last week, amid widespread Iranian drone and missile attacks on the Gulf states in response to U.S. and Israeli strikes on it.

The price of oil surged amid supply fears but fell after U.S. President Donald Trump said the U.S. would hit Iran “twenty times harder” if it attempted to halt oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

Speaking after Saudi Aramco reported full-year 2025 earnings that beat analysts’ estimate, Nasser warned:  “With the current geopolitical crisis, global inventories, which are already at a five-year low, would see downwards at a faster rate.

“Global spare capacity is mostly concentrated in this region, so it is absolutely critical that shipping resumes in the Strait of Hormuz.”

On Monday, the spokesman for Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs told CNBC that oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz “must be very careful.”

“As long as the situation is insecure, I think all tankers, all maritime navigation, must be very careful,” said Esmail Baghaei, who is also head of the Center for Public Diplomacy.

Aramco’s full-year earnings

The Saudi state oil giant reported a full‑year adjusted net income of $104.7 billion, which it described as “robust growth” despite a year of oil‑price volatility.

Fourth‑quarter adjusted profit came in at $25.1 billion, slightly above the median consensus estimate of $24.8 billion compiled by the company.

Free cash flow for the year reached $85.4 billion.

The company also declared a base dividend of $21.89 billion for the fourth quarter, up 3.5% from a year earlier, to be paid in the first quarter of 2026. The company remains one of the world’s biggest dividend payers and a crucial source of income for the Saudi state.

Total shareholder distributions for the year reached $85.5 billion, as the company continued to prioritize payouts despite easing crude prices in 2025.

Aramco also announced a share buyback program of up to $3 billion over 18 months.

Shares of Aramco have risen sharply in recent sessions as oil prices surged amid fears of supply disruptions in the Middle East.

Cash flow

Aramco generated $136.2 billion in operating cash flow last year, driven by what the company said was steady production and strong downstream results. Capital investments totaled $52.2 billion, in line with company guidance and slightly below 2024 levels.

“Our disciplined capital allocation, combined with lower‑cost and highly reliable operations, drove strong financial performance in a year marked by price volatility,” Nasser said in the earnings release.

Crude prices during 2025 fell to $69.2 per barrel, from $80.2 in 2024, reflecting a softer oil market and rising global supply. In recent days, though, crude spiked to nearly $120 per barrel as war in the Middle East escalated.

CNBC