Hormuz Strait may not fully reopen until H2 2026

Baker Hughes is working under the assumption that the Strait of Hormuz may not fully reopen for months, a senior executive at the influential oilfield services firm said Friday.

Baker is assuming in its financial guidance that the U.S.-Iran conflict continues through the end of June and the strait may not be fully operational until the second half of the year, Chief Financial Officer Ahmed Moghal told investors on the company’s first-quarter earnings call.

“There’s still a great deal of uncertainty regarding, ultimately, the duration and depth of the conflict,” Moghal said.

Baker is one of the most infuential oilfield drillers in the world with extensive business in the Middle East. The assumption that the strait may not reopen for months is widely shared in the energy industry.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found in a survey of nearly 100 oil and gas executives that nearly 80% believe the strait will not reopen until August or later. More than 80% of executives who responded see future disruptions in the strait as somewhat or very likely, the Dallas Fed Energy survey found.

Baker Hughes CEO Lorenzo Simonelli said “geopolitical risk has become a structural reality for oil and gas markets” after the Iran war. The closure of the strait has impacted 10% of global oil volumes and knocked offline 20% of global liquified natural gas (LNG) supplies, Simonelli said.

This will likely to result in “persistent risk premiums for oil and LNG prices,” the CEO said.

The strait is one of the most important trade routes in the world, particularly for energy markets with about 20% of global oil supplies passing through the sea lane before the war. Iran has managed to choke off exports through the strait by attacking tankers, triggering the biggest oil supply disruption in history.

Tanker traffic through the strait remains very low as the conflict enters its eighth week. The U.S. and Iran have both seized commercial ships as they try to enforce competing blockades in and around the strait during a fragile ceasefire agreement.

CNBC